In this personal blog, I post my views on various issues. Comments are welcome.

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Could the inflation be responsible for the current forex shortage?

In the past two years, the Ethiopian central bank has been reported to face foreign exchange shortage. And the foreign exchange shortage is mainly driven by increased demand for import despite a significant increase in export. And the government's focus so far seems to focus on increasing the country's access to foreign exchange by increasing exports and foreign capital inflow (aid, loans, remittances, etc). A number factors may lie behind the increased demand for foreign exchange. Until recently, oil import alone used to take away whatever is earned from exports (due to high oil prices in the international market). There may also be pressure on import demand due to high inflation at home and a relatively stable exchange rate. The domestic inflation increases import demand by increasing the real price of domestic goods compared to imported goods. The mechanism is as follows. Suppose the price of goods in China is unchanged. And assume the exchange rate in Addis Ababa is also unchanged. What this implies is that, for an importer in Addis, the price of importing goods from China is unchanged. On the other hand, if home made goods are getting expensive at home (due to high domestic inflation), consumers in Addis tend to buy more of imported foreign goods and less of home-made goods. For example, if the price of orange juice produced by Mama keeps on increasing while the one imported from Dubai remains the same, then consumers will shift from using Mama juice to the relatively cheaper juice imported from Dubai. According to the Economist, the price of home goods increased roughly by at least 33% compared to imported goods during 2004-2008. Such a shift in consumer demand will then increase import demand putting more pressure on the central bank's foreign exchange reserve.

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